Can we really tell who will succeed in competitive business situations without knowing what they have to offer? - MIT Study

The finding: It’s not what you say, it’s how you say it. It’s possible to predict which executives will win a business competition solely on the basis of the social signals they send.

The study: Sandy Pentland and colleague Daniel Olguín Olguín outfitted executives at a party with devices that recorded data on their social signals—tone of voice, gesticulation, proximity to others, and more. Five days later the same executives presented business plans to a panel of judges in a contest. Without reading or hearing the pitches, Pentland correctly forecast the winners, using only data collected at the party.

The challenge: Can we really tell who will succeed in competitive business situations without knowing what they have to offer? Professor Pentland, defend your research.

Pentland: This study not only confirms previous research—we’ve used data on social signals to predict the outcome of salary negotiations and even who would “survive” a plane crash in a NASA role-playing game—but takes it further. This time we collected the data well before the event whose outcome we predicted. But in all the situations, these social cues—what we call “honest signals”—were powerful indicators of success.

 Key Number

HBR: What exactly are honest signals?

It’s a biological term. They’re the nonverbal cues that social species use to coordinate themselves—gestures, expressions, tone. Humans use many types of signals, but honest signals are unusual in that they cause changes in the receiver of the signal. If we’re spending time together, and I’m happy and bubbly, you’ll be more happy and bubbly. There are biological functions that transfer the signals. If I’m happy, it almost literally rubs off on you.

So your devices measure these signals?

Yes, they measure those things as well as how much you face the people you’re talking to, how close you stand to them, and how much you let them talk.

 Interactions Mapping

Is one type of signaler more likely to succeed?

The more successful people are more energetic. They talk more, but they also listen more. They spend more face-to-face time with others. They pick up cues from others, draw people out, and get them to be more outgoing. It’s not just what they project that makes them charismatic; it’s what they elicit. The more of these energetic, positive people you put on a team, the better the team’s performance.

All you’re saying is that enthusiastic team players will be more successful. We already knew that, didn’t we?

Written By

Alex “Sandy” Pentland (pentland@media.mit.edu) directs the MIT Human Dynamics Lab and is the author of Honest Signals (MIT Press, 2008).

Copyright © 2009 Harvard Business School Publishing Corporation. All rights reserved.