Many reputable institutions issue regular economic forecasts that are widely cited in the international press. And yet, how accurate are these forecasts? Should we really trust them? In April 2008, for example, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected that global economic growth would slow to 3.7 percent in 2008, and remain broadly unchanged in 2009. In addition, it predicted that the U.S. economy would tip into a mild recession in 2008 as a result of mutually reinforcing cycles in the housing and financial markets, before starting a modest recovery in 2009. In October 2008, the IMF stated that the world economy was entering a major downturn and that economic growth would slow substantially in 2009 with a modest recovery to begin only later in the year. In January, 2009 the growth forecast was cut to 0.5%. In February it was further reduced to 0.0%. And in March it slid into the negative for the first time since the 1940s.